Bitcoin's 48.7% Drawdown Just Put the Treasury-Company Playbook Into Reverse: 20 Firms Retreat and Strategy's mNAV Falls Below 1
For two years the digital-asset-treasury trade looked like a perpetual-motion machine: raise money, buy Bitcoin, watch the stock trade above the value of that Bitcoin, issue more shares into the premium, buy more Bitcoin. This week the machine visibly ran in reverse. With Bitcoin now 48.7% below its October peak, at least 20 public treasury companies have cut, paused or unwound their accumulation, and Strategy, the company that invented the playbook, saw its mNAV fall below 1 for the first time. We read the price that is doing the damage, and the math explains the retreat.
Reading the live market, Bitcoin sits at $64,633, down from an all-time high of $126,080. That single number is the mechanism. A treasury company works only while its shares trade at a premium to the crypto it holds, an mNAV above 1. When Bitcoin halves and the premium flips to a discount, the flywheel stops: the company can no longer issue stock above net asset value to fund more buying, and the debt taken on during the boom still has to be serviced.
The drawdown behind the reversal
| Company | Action this cycle |
|---|---|
| Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) | mNAV below 1 for the first time; sold 3,588 BTC, holdings below 844,000 BTC |
| Satsuma Technology | Shareholders voted (over 90%) on July 21 to liquidate all 668 BTC (~$43M) and delist |
| Smarter Web Company | Sold 178 BTC to repay a convertible instrument |
| The wider field (VanEck) | 20 firms retreating: 9 full exits, 7 partial or forced sellers, 4 to active management |
Why mNAV below 1 is the tripwire
mNAV, the ratio of a company's market value to the net asset value of its crypto, is the whole game. Above 1, every share sold is accretive: the company raises more per share than the Bitcoin behind it is worth, so issuing stock to buy more coin makes existing holders richer in Bitcoin-per-share. Below 1, the logic inverts. New issuance is dilutive, the discount signals the market no longer believes in the premium, and any debt or high-yield preferred stock raised in the good times becomes a liability that has to be paid from a shrinking asset base. That is why a discount does not just dent sentiment; it removes the financing engine the entire model depends on.
The debt is the accelerant
The catalyst turning a drawdown into forced selling is how these balance sheets were funded. Several companies leaned on high-yielding preferred stock, some series demanding yields as high as 12%. Those coupons do not care where Bitcoin trades. When the equity premium disappears and fresh capital dries up, the only way to meet obligations is to sell the coins, exactly the behavior that turns a paper loss into realized supply hitting the market. Satsuma's shareholders chose to wind the whole thing down; Smarter Web sold to repay a convertible; even Strategy has trimmed. The order of operations is the same everywhere: premium gone, financing gone, sell.
What to watch
Three things. First, whether more of the 20 retreating firms move from "pausing purchases" to outright selling, since forced sellers add real supply pressure to a market that is already down by half. Second, Strategy specifically: it is large enough that how it manages an mNAV below 1, hold, trim, or restructure its preferred stack, sets the tone for the sector. Third, whether the survivors pivot, some are already shifting toward active management or entirely different businesses like AI, which would mark the end of the pure buy-and-hold treasury thesis.
Fifty-two billion dollars of paper value
Apply the live price to the biggest stack and the scale of the damage gets vivid. Strategy's holdings of just under 844,000 BTC are worth about $54.5 billion at $64,633. Priced at the October peak of $126,080, that same stack would have been worth about $106.4 billion. Call it roughly $52 billion of paper value that the drawdown has taken off a single balance sheet, and the same arithmetic, at smaller scale, is what pushed the rest of the sector's mNAVs toward 1.
| The drawdown in dollars (at live BTC price) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Strategy's ~844,000 BTC at the $126,080 peak price | ~$106.4B |
| The same stack at $64,633 today | ~$54.5B |
| Paper value erased by the drawdown | ~$52B |
| This week's 3,588 BTC sale | ~$232M |
| Satsuma's entire liquidated stack (668 BTC) | ~$43.2M |
The smaller numbers explain the divergent choices. Satsuma's whole treasury is worth about $43 million, small enough that returning it to shareholders is a clean decision. Strategy's position is three orders of magnitude larger, big enough that what it does next moves the market it is trying to exit or defend.
What would turn it around
There are only three real exits from an mNAV below 1. The first is the obvious one: a Bitcoin price recovery that re-inflates net asset value and, with it, the premium. The second is buying back shares, which is accretive below NAV and is the route several discounted vehicles have started to take. The third is restructuring the expensive preferred stock before its coupons force more coin sales. The tripwire to watch, in both directions, is the same metric that broke: mNAV crossing 1.
The bottom line
The treasury-company boom was a bet that the premium would hold. Bitcoin's 48.7% fall from its peak took the premium away, and with it the financing machine that made the model work. Twenty companies are now in retreat and the originator is trading below the value of its own coins. This is not a sentiment wobble; it is the model meeting the math.
Data note. Bitcoin's price ($64,633) and its 48.7% drawdown from the $126,080 all-time high were read by DEXTools News from live market data on July 26, 2026. Company-level figures, the count of 20 retreating firms (VanEck), Strategy's mNAV falling below 1, the Satsuma liquidation vote and preferred-stock yields reflect public disclosures and reporting as of July 24-26, 2026. Portfolio arithmetic applies the live BTC price to publicly reported holdings. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is mNAV and why does falling below 1 matter?
mNAV is the ratio of a treasury company's market value to the net asset value of the crypto it holds. Above 1, the company trades at a premium and can issue shares to buy more coin accretively. Below 1, it trades at a discount to its own holdings, new issuance becomes dilutive, and the financing engine that funds further buying stops. Strategy's mNAV fell below 1 for the first time in 2026.
How many Bitcoin treasury companies are retreating?
According to VanEck, at least 20 public Bitcoin treasury companies have cut, paused or unwound their accumulation: nine complete exits, seven partial or forced sellers, and four that have shifted toward more active management. It marks a broad reversal of the buy-and-hold treasury strategy.
Why is Bitcoin's price causing forced selling?
Bitcoin is down 48.7% from its October 2025 peak, trading around $64,633 on July 26, 2026. Many treasury companies funded their buying with debt and high-yield preferred stock, some demanding yields as high as 12%. When the equity premium disappears and new capital dries up, those obligations can only be met by selling the coins, turning paper losses into realized supply.
What did Satsuma and Strategy do?
Satsuma Technology shareholders voted on July 21, 2026 with over 90% approval to liquidate all 668 BTC (about $43 million at current prices) and delist. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, sold 3,588 BTC, bringing its holdings below 844,000 BTC, and saw its mNAV fall below 1 for the first time.